Jasa Marga mempertahankan kinerja positifnya di Semester I Tahun 2023. (FOTO: JSMR)
SIARDAILY, Jakarta – Kinerja PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) diprediksi semakin mulus tahun ini seiring rencana perseroan untuk mendorong pertumbuhan jangka panjang melalui jalan tol baru. Kinerja yang prima, bakal turut mendongkrak harga saham JSMR menjadi Rp.7.600 dibandingkan posisi saat ini Rp 5.150 atau naik 50%.
Pada akhir tahun 2023, JSMR menyelesaikan puncak Seksi 2 Jalan Tol Cinere-Serpong sepanjang ±3,64 km. Pembangunan ini siap merevolusi konektivitas regional, khususnya di wilayah Jabodetabek.
Analis Sinarmas Sekuritas Michael Fillbery mengatakan, setelah beroperasi akan terintegrasi dengan jaringan jalan tol JORR 2, khususnya tol Cinere-Jagorawi. Saat ini, JSMR menerapkan pendekatan yang cerdas dalam akuisisi jalan tol, dengan fokus utama pada proyek-proyek di Pulau Jawa yang melengkapi jalan tol yang sudah ada.
“Menyongsong 2024, JSMR mengincar penyelesaian tiga proyek tambahan jalan tol, yakni Jakarta-Cikampek II Selatan (Seksi III) (31,25 km), Jogja Bawen Seksi 1 (8,25 km), dan Jogja-Solo (Seksi IA) (22,3 km),” ungkap Michael dalam riset terbaru.
Penekanan strategis ini menegaskan komitmen perusahaan untuk memperluas jaringan jalan tol dan memperkuat konektivitas, yang pada gilirannya diharapkan dapat meningkatkan volume lalu lintas dan pendapatan di seluruh jalan tol yang ada.
Setelah selesainya pembelian kembali Lintas Marga Jawa (LMJ), saat ini pendapatan jalan tol dari 3 ruas tol terkemuka (jalan tol Solo-Ngawi, Semarang-Batang, dan Ngawi-Kertonoso) mulai dikonsolidasikan pada pelaporan JSMR pada kuartal III-2023.
“Proses konsolidasi ketiga ruas tol tersebut dijadwalkan pada kuartal III-2023 dan akan berkontribusi 16% dari total pendapatan anak perusahaan pada tahun 2023, menurut pandangan kami,” ujar Michael.
Selain itu, divestasi JTT diperkirakan akan menghasilkan pendapatan besar yang berkisar antara Rp10-12 triliun, berdasarkan P/B konservatif 2,0-2,5 kali.
Pada Sembilan bulan 2023, JSMR berhasil menurunkan biaya keuangan sebesar 18.4% (YoY), terutama disebabkan oleh dekonsolidasi utang akibat divestasi jalan tol Jakarta-Cikampek pada 4Q22.
Selain itu, JSMR memperkirakan posisi WACD pada Desember 2023 masih terkendali, berkisar sekitar 6,69% (dibanding 6,72% pada Juni 2023) karena meningkatnya pinjaman dengan suku bunga tetap.
Saat ini, JSMR telah menegaskan kembali panduan DER-nya sebesar 2,2-2,4 kali, dibandingkan dengan proyeksi analis sebesar 2,0 kali.
“Kami masih optimistis bahwa gearing rasio akan berada pada level yang baik seiring dengan potensi perolehan dana dari divestasi JTT,” jelas analis.
Yang mencakup pertumbuhan pendapatan jalan tol sebesar 16-18%, pertumbuhan EBITDA sebesar >15% (dibanding >10% di tahun 2023) Margin EBITDA berkisar antara 64-66%, ICR >2,0kali, serta Gearing rasio sekitar 2,2 – 2,4 kali, dan perkiraan belanja modal investasi jalan tol maksimum per tahun sebesar Rp 8-10 triliun.
Analis melakukan revisi signifikan pada laba tahun 2023, karena adanya keuntungan bersih satu kali sebesar Rp4,1 triliun dari penyesuaian nilai wajar pada 3 ruas jalan tol yang dibeli kembali.
“Kami mempertahankan peringkat BELI pada JSMR dengan target harga Rp 12 juta yang lebih tinggi pada level Rp7.600 (dari sebelumnya Rp5.100), mencerminkan penilaian ulang secara bertahap, dengan kelipatan EV/EBITDA 2024 tersirat sebesar 8,4 kali,” tandas Michael.
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